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Houston TexansC.J. Stroud Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
C.J. Stroud has gone over 12.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 14.8 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutC.J. Stroud isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
On a day when he was missing top receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) and led the Texans to only six points, Stroud somehow found his way to his highest passing yardage total since Week 10 of his rookie 2023 campaign. Stroud largely got there by incessantly targeting Dalton Schultz, who was on the receiving end of 12 of the quarterback's completions and accounted for 140 of his yards. The fourth-year signal-caller managed to help the Texans to only three points after halftime, however, and he took all four sacks he sustained in the fourth quarter. Stroud did record completions to eight different targets overall in the absence of Collins, and he could have his top wideout back in the fold for an important early-season Week 3 divisional road clash against the Colts next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 12.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.5 RUSH YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 12.0 · L10 7.5 · med 5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 28.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 12.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — @ IND
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 28.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, C.J. Stroud has gone over 12.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 47% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (28.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 11.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More C.J. Stroud research
C.J. Stroud — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Stroud Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Stroud Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Stroud Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.