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Houston TexansC.J. Stroud Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
C.J. Stroud has gone over 7.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 11.4 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutC.J. Stroud isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stroud threw a six-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison in the final minute of the first half and added a two-point conversion to Cade Stover to tie the score at 14-14 heading into halftime. Houston's next points didn't come until the final minute of the fourth quarter, when Stroud found Xavier Hutchinson for a three-yard touchdown that sent the game to overtime. The Texans went three-and-out on the first possession of OT, and the Giants responded with a touchdown to drop the Texans to 2-5 heading into Houston's Week 8 bye. It's hard to blame Stroud for the team's poor record given his strong 11:1 TD:INT.
Verdict
vs 7.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
8.2 RUSH YDS(×0.88 context)
L5 7.2 · L10 11.4 · med 10.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.0 · ceil 14.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Situational splits
Over 7.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ LAC
Nov 8, 2026
25thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAC allows 9.9 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, C.J. Stroud has gone over 7.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (9.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 7.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-5.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-105
-3.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.5%
Our model puts the over at 52.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (7.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More C.J. Stroud research
C.J. Stroud — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Stroud Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Stroud Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Stroud Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.