Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

C.J. Stroud has gone over 17 FS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.2 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutC.J. Stroud isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Stroud threw a six-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison in the final minute of the first half and added a two-point conversion to Cade Stover to tie the score at 14-14 heading into halftime. Houston's next points didn't come until the final minute of the fourth quarter, when Stroud found Xavier Hutchinson for a three-yard touchdown that sent the game to overtime. The Texans went three-and-out on the first possession of OT, and the Giants responded with a touchdown to drop the Texans to 2-5 heading into Houston's Week 8 bye. It's hard to blame Stroud for the team's poor record given his strong 11:1 TD:INT.

Verdict

vs 17 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency61supports it

Projection

16.2 FS(×0.88 context)

L5 18.8 · L10 18.2 · med 17.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 14.9 · ceil 22.7

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 7 games — FS per game vs. line 17.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 17 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

Next matchup — @ LAC

Nov 8, 2026

25thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

LAC allows 14.3 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, C.J. Stroud has gone over 17 FS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most FS of 32 teams (14.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.