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Seattle SeahawksCooper Kupp
#10 · WR · 6' 1" · 205 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Eastern Washington
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 39.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCooper Kupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kupp wasn't very productive, but that was the case for all of Seattle's wideouts aside from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who dominated with nine catches for 155 yards and one touchdown. The only other Seahawks player to log more than Kupp's two targets was Rashid Shaheed, who put up a 3-35-0 line on six targets. Through two weeks, Kupp has tallied a modest four receptions for 55 yards. With Smith-Njigba dominating the targets in Seattle's passing game, Kupp may struggle to put up consistent production this season.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
46.8 REC YDS(×1.16 context)
L5 44.2 · L10 37.1 · med 35.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 24.4 · ceil 56.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 35.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 56.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cooper Kupp has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (56.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 23.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-4.9% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+15.5%
Our model puts the over at 65.3% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (23.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.