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Chicago BearsD'Andre Swift
#4 · RB · 5' 8" · 204 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 68.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutD'Andre Swift isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Swift put in a full night's work while repeatedly butting heads with the Seahawks' elite run defense, as his longest run went for only seven yards, and he averaged 2.6 yards per carry overall. He sealed the win for Chicago with his third touchdown of the game, a five-yard run with 4:41 remaining. That score was preceded by one- and five-yard TDs earlier in the second half, and Swift's carry total was a season high. The veteran running back is up to a career-high 10 rushing touchdowns heading into a Week 9 home matchup against the Buccaneers on Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 63.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency37argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
61.5 RUSH YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 58.4 · L10 68.1 · med 63.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 44.4 · ceil 81.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 63.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 63.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 36.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, D'Andre Swift has gone over 63.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 25.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 62.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.4%
Our model puts the over at 45.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (62.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.