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Chicago BearsD'Andre Swift
#4 · RB · 5' 8" · 204 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 73.7 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutD'Andre Swift isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wet and windy conditions at Soldier Field put a damper on both teams' passing games, and Swift wound up leading Chicago in receiving yards while tying Kalif Raymond for the team lead in receptions. Swift also had the Bears' longest play from scrimmage, a 32-year catch-and-run in the fourth quarter. The veteran RB has racked up 233 combined yards through two games, but his offense could look very different in Week 3 against the Eagles as Caleb Williams (hamstring) left Sunday's loss in the fourth quarter, with Tyson Bagent finishing up under center.
Verdict
vs 63.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
71.0 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 69.6 · L10 78.2 · med 69.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 48.2 · ceil 104.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Season18 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 63.5Current | 44% | 8/18 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 |
Situational splits
Over 63.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Last matchup — @ CAR
Sep 13, 2026
2ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAR allows 112.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, D'Andre Swift has gone over 63.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (112.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 30.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.