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Chicago BearsD'Andre Swift Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
D'Andre Swift has gone over 2.5 REC in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutD'Andre Swift isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Swift put in a full night's work while repeatedly butting heads with the Seahawks' elite run defense, as his longest run went for only seven yards, and he averaged 2.6 yards per carry overall. He sealed the win for Chicago with his third touchdown of the game, a five-yard run with 4:41 remaining. That score was preceded by one- and five-yard TDs earlier in the second half, and Swift's carry total was a season high. The veteran running back is up to a career-high 10 rushing touchdowns heading into a Week 9 home matchup against the Buccaneers on Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency27argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
3.3 REC(×1.09 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 2.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
4thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs
TB allows 2.7 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, D'Andre Swift has gone over 2.5 REC 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 55.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 44.6%
Best Over
Caesars-139
-4.7% EV
Best Under
BetMGM+145
+9.2% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.8%
Our model puts the over at 61.2% vs the market's no-vig 55.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More D'Andre Swift research
D'Andre Swift — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Swift Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Swift Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Swift Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Swift Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.