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Chicago BearsD'Andre Swift Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
D'Andre Swift has gone over 14.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 20.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutD'Andre Swift isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Swift was bottled up by an elite Buccaneers run defense that came into Week 9 allowing a league-low 80 rushing yards per game. He nearly had a fumble in the fourth quarter but was ruled down by contact on a play that the Buccaneers unsuccessfully challenged. Swift's momentum came to an abrupt halt with this season-worst performance, as he failed to reach 70 scrimmage yards for the first time all season after racking up seven touchdowns in the preceding four games. After Chicago's Week 10 bye, Swift could be back to sharing the backfield with Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe), who hasn't played since Week 4 but recently returned to practice.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
19.5 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 18.8 · L10 20.3 · med 14.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.0 · ceil 28.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 18.2 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, D'Andre Swift has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (18.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 15.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 20.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-4.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.3%
Our model puts the over at 59.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (20.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More D'Andre Swift research
D'Andre Swift — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Swift Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Swift Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Swift Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Swift Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.