Chicago Bears

D'Andre Swift Carries

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

D'Andre Swift has gone over 13.5 CAR in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 14.5 CAR · our line

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OutD'Andre Swift isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Swift offers more explosiveness and pass-catching ability than Monangai, though both backs are expected to play significant roles in coach Ben Johnson's offense behind Chicago's revamped offensive line. Across 16 regular-season appearances in 2025, Swift rushed 223 times for 1,087 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns while adding 34 catches for 299 yards and another score on 48 targets. The 27-year-old is heading into the final year of his contract with the Bears.

Verdict

vs 13.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency61supports it

Projection

13.0 CAR(×0.90 context)

L5 12.8 · L10 14.7 · med 13.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 12.2 · ceil 18.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Season17 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	15/17
	82%	14/17
	76%	13/17
13.5Current	47%	8/17
	35%	6/17
	35%	6/17
	35%	6/17

Last 17 games — CAR per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%7/16Medium

Last matchup — vs LAR

Jan 18, 2026

19thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

LAR allows 10.9 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, D'Andre Swift has gone over 13.5 CAR 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.9 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.