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Dallas CowboysDak Prescott
#4 · QB · 6' 2" · 230 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 255.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Arizona's defense had been plenty exploitable this season, allowing 243.7 yards per game and 17 TDs through the air to opposing QBs heading into Week 8 action. Even with his main skill-position talents available Sunday, though, Prescott didn't crack 200 passing yards for the first time since Week 1. He salvaged his day with his first TD on the ground of the campaign, which supplemented a nine-yard TD connection with WR Ryan Flournoy. Prescott and the Cowboys offense will look to get back on track next Sunday versus an exploitable Colts defense on the road.
Verdict
vs 266.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 36% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line36argues against it
Consistency65supports it
Projection
278.2 PASS YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 263.2 · L10 255.8 · med 267.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 201.8 · ceil 301.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 266.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 266.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
20thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 219.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 266.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (219.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 53.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 263.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-3.7% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.6%
Our model puts the over at 63.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (263.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.