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Dallas CowboysDak Prescott Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dak Prescott has gone over 19.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 19.6 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Prescott's five incompletions and the two sacks he took were about the only blemishes on an otherwise outstanding performance. Prescott was clicking early and often with CeeDee Lamb, connecting with top wideout for eight of his completions and targeting him nine times overall for a total of 153 yards. Half of the veteran signal-caller's touchdown tosses went to the No. 1 wideout from three and 24 yards out, and Prescott hit Jake Ferguson from 10 and 12 yards for his other two scoring strikes. Despite a Week 1 loss to the Giants, Prescott's numbers have largely been above reproach, as he has a 73.8 percent completion rate and a 6:1 TD:INT heading into next Sunday's Week 3 home showdown against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Verdict
vs 19.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency44neutral
Projection
20.6 FS(×1.10 context)
L5 17.5 · L10 18.5 · med 18.8
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.7 · ceil 24.1
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 19.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%9/16Medium
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
28thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
BAL allows 10.0 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 19.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. BAL has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most FS of 32 teams (10.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Dak Prescott research
Dak Prescott — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Prescott Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Prescott Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Prescott Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.