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Dallas CowboysDak Prescott Passing TDs
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dak Prescott has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 1.8 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Prescott had a couple of bumps in the road against an inconsistent Colts defense, but the veteran signal-caller, who was also working without George Pickens (hamstring), still found his way to his third 300-yard effort of the season. Prescott unsurprisingly bestowed plenty of attention on CeeDee Lamb, who ultimately was responsible for 10 of his completions, 195 of his yards and one of his two TDs. Prescott also connected with Jake Ferguson for a 10-yard scoring strike early in the second quarter, and the one blemish on the star quarterback's day was a fumble on a sack at his own 16-yard line that led to a Colts touchdown. Prescott has at least one touchdown pass in every game heading into a Week 10 home showdown against the 49ers next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.9 PASS TD(×1.12 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
Next matchup — vs SF
Nov 15, 2026
14thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
SF allows 1.4 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 54.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 45.3%
Best Over
DraftKings-134
-4.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars+111
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-3.3%
Our model puts the over at 51.4% vs the market's no-vig 54.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Dak Prescott research
Dak Prescott — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Prescott Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Prescott Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Prescott Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.