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Dallas CowboysDak Prescott Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dak Prescott has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 12.6 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Arizona's defense had been plenty exploitable this season, allowing 243.7 yards per game and 17 TDs through the air to opposing QBs heading into Week 8 action. Even with his main skill-position talents available Sunday, though, Prescott didn't crack 200 passing yards for the first time since Week 1. He salvaged his day with his first TD on the ground of the campaign, which supplemented a nine-yard TD connection with WR Ryan Flournoy. Prescott and the Cowboys offense will look to get back on track next Sunday versus an exploitable Colts defense on the road.
Verdict
vs 11.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
13.8 RUSH YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 8.4 · L10 12.6 · med 11.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 7.0 · ceil 19.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 11.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
10thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 18.1 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (18.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 5.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-5.6% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-108
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.8%
Our model puts the over at 60.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Dak Prescott research
Dak Prescott — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Prescott Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Prescott Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Prescott Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.