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Cleveland BrownsDeshaun Watson
#4 · QB · 6' 3" · 223 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 221.5 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeshaun Watson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The proverbial vultures seemed to be surrounding Watson already after an ugly Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but the oft-maligned veteran signal-caller preserved his starting job for the moment with Sunday's weather-delayed upset victory. Watson ran the Browns offense with a steady hand throughout the afternoon, avoiding turnovers while navigating a pair of sacks and connecting with Denzel Boston (55 yards) and Blake Whiteheart (17 yards) for his pair of touchdown passes. Watson has completed a stellar 76.9 percent of his passes and posted a 3:1 TD:INT through two games, and he'll next take on the Panthers in a Week 3 home matchup next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 185.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 88% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line88supports it
Consistency88supports it
Projection
204.5 PASS YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 221.5 · L10 221.5 · med 221.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 211.6 · ceil 231.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
100%over
2 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%Last 102 games
100%over
2 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%Last 202 games
100%over
2 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%Season2 games
100%over
2 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 185.5Current | 100% | 2/2 | |
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 |
Situational splits
Over 185.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 138.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Deshaun Watson has gone over 185.5 PASS YDS 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (138.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 16.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.