Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Deshaun Watson has gone over 25.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 27.1 RUSH YDS · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Deshaun Watson's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Concussion Concussion

Early in this past Sunday's 27-6 loss to the Steelers, Watson exited the game to get checked for a concussion following a helmet-to-helmet hit, but he was cleared to re-enter the contest after missing just four offensive snaps. However, after he had some late-surfacing symptoms, Watson entered concussion protocol Tuesday and was a spectator for the Browns' first Week 9 session. According to Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com, Watson "felt a lot better" Wednesday and was involved in meetings, but Shedeur Sanders took all the reps with the first-team offense. Sanders appears to be trending toward starting Sunday against the Saints, as Monken acknowledged that it will be difficult for Watson to play even if he ends up clearing the protocol late in the week, per Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram.

Verdict

vs 25.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 4/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency20argues against it

Projection

22.6 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)

L5 22.4 · L10 27.1 · med 25.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 20.2 · ceil 39.2

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
25.5Current	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8

Last 8 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 25.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 25.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Next matchup — @ NO

Nov 8, 2026

15thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

NO allows 15.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Deshaun Watson has gone over 25.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (15.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 13.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.