Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Deshaun Watson has gone over 21.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 2 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 30.0 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks line

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OutDeshaun Watson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The proverbial vultures seemed to be surrounding Watson already after an ugly Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but the oft-maligned veteran signal-caller preserved his starting job for the moment with Sunday's weather-delayed upset victory. Watson ran the Browns offense with a steady hand throughout the afternoon, avoiding turnovers while navigating a pair of sacks and connecting with Denzel Boston (55 yards) and Blake Whiteheart (17 yards) for his pair of touchdown passes. Watson has completed a stellar 76.9 percent of his passes and posted a 3:1 TD:INT through two games, and he'll next take on the Panthers in a Week 3 home matchup next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 21.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency56neutral

Projection

27.3 RUSH YDS(×0.92 context)

L5 30.0 · L10 30.0 · med 30.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 25.2 · ceil 34.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 102 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 202 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Season2 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
21.5Current	100%	2/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2

Last 2 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 21.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 21.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%2/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs CAR

Sep 27, 2026

4thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

CAR allows 33.7 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Deshaun Watson has gone over 21.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (33.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.