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Cleveland BrownsDeshaun Watson Completions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Deshaun Watson has gone over 17 CMP in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 20.0 CMP · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Completions (CMP)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDeshaun Watson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The proverbial vultures seemed to be surrounding Watson already after an ugly Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but the oft-maligned veteran signal-caller preserved his starting job for the moment with Sunday's weather-delayed upset victory. Watson ran the Browns offense with a steady hand throughout the afternoon, avoiding turnovers while navigating a pair of sacks and connecting with Denzel Boston (55 yards) and Blake Whiteheart (17 yards) for his pair of touchdown passes. Watson has completed a stellar 76.9 percent of his passes and posted a 3:1 TD:INT through two games, and he'll next take on the Panthers in a Week 3 home matchup next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 17 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency67supports it
Projection
18.6 CMP(×0.92 context)
L5 20.0 · L10 20.0 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.6 · ceil 22.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Situational splits
Over 17 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CAR
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 13.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Deshaun Watson has gone over 17 CMP 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most CMP of 32 teams (13.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Completions (CMP)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (17.25 CMP). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Deshaun Watson research
Deshaun Watson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Watson Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Watson Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Watson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.