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Seattle SeahawksEmanuel Wilson
#23 · RB · 5' 10" · 226 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Fort Valley State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 48.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutEmanuel Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wilson did a solid job filling in for an injured Josh Jacobs in Green Bay last season, so it's no surprise there was fantasy interest after Wilson signed with the RB-needy Seahawks in March on a reported one-year, $2.1 million contract. His fantasy stock has since taken a hit, in large part because the Seahawks drafted RB Jadarian Price at No. 32 overall in April. It also doesn't help that Wilson's contract is closer to $1.6 million in base value, not $2.1 million, and with only $300,000 guaranteed at signing. He may still be part of the plan to help replace Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) and Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL), but early reports out of Seattle have George Holani getting most of the first-team reps while Price mixes in some. Wilson seems to be exclusively working with the backups, at least during the media-access portions of practice.
Verdict
vs 43.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency1argues against it
Projection
60.4 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 57.8 · L10 48.4 · med 44.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 21.8 · ceil 69.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 43.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Sam Darnold out-10.0 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
44.0 RUSH YDS
60% over 43.5
With (4g)
54.0 RUSH YDS
50% over 43.5
Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery-22.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
40.8 RUSH YDS
50% over 43.5
With (3g)
63.7 RUSH YDS
67% over 43.5
Last matchup — @ MIN
Jan 4, 2026
9thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIN allows 52.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Emanuel Wilson has gone over 43.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (52.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.