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Seattle SeahawksEmanuel Wilson
#23 · RB · 5' 10" · 226 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Fort Valley State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 52.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutEmanuel Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wilson stepped into a larger workload Week 2, partially due to rookie running back Jadarian Price exiting the game with a chest injury in the fourth quarter. The 92 rushing yards were Wilson's highest total since he notched 107 yards and two scores on 28 totes in Week 12 of the 2025 campaign while with the Packers. Wilson could handle the lion's share of touches in the backfield against the Commanders in Week 3 if Price is forced to miss the contest.
Verdict
vs 44.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 33% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency5argues against it
Projection
70.7 RUSH YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 73.0 · L10 52.8 · med 44.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 23.4 · ceil 84.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 44.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 44.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
9thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
WSH allows 56.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Emanuel Wilson has gone over 44.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (56.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.