Seattle Seahawks

Emanuel Wilson Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emanuel Wilson has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Fort Valley State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.3 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutEmanuel Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wilson stepped into a larger workload Week 2, partially due to rookie running back Jadarian Price exiting the game with a chest injury in the fourth quarter. The 92 rushing yards were Wilson's highest total since he notched 107 yards and two scores on 28 totes in Week 12 of the 2025 campaign while with the Packers. Wilson could handle the lion's share of touches in the backfield against the Commanders in Week 3 if Price is forced to miss the contest.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 25% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)6argues against it

Projection vs line38argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 RUSH TD(×1.12 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Season10 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	2/10
	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away13%1/8Medium

Days since last game

3+ days22%2/9Low

Next matchup — @ WSH

Sep 27, 2026

24thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

WSH allows 0.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Emanuel Wilson has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. WSH has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 24th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.