Seattle Seahawks

Emanuel Wilson Targets

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emanuel Wilson has gone over 1.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Fort Valley State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.6 TGT · our line

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OutEmanuel Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wilson did a solid job filling in for an injured Josh Jacobs in Green Bay last season, so it's no surprise there was fantasy interest after Wilson signed with the RB-needy Seahawks in March on a reported one-year, $2.1 million contract. His fantasy stock has since taken a hit, in large part because the Seahawks drafted RB Jadarian Price at No. 32 overall in April. It also doesn't help that Wilson's contract is closer to $1.6 million in base value, not $2.1 million, and with only $300,000 guaranteed at signing. He may still be part of the plan to help replace Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) and Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL), but early reports out of Seattle have George Holani getting most of the first-team reps while Price mixes in some. Wilson seems to be exclusively working with the backups, at least during the media-access portions of practice.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.5 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.6 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	78%	7/9
1.5Current	44%	4/9
	22%	2/9
	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Sam Darnold out+1.0 TGT when he sits

Without (5g)

2.0 TGT

60% over 1.5

With (4g)

1.0 TGT

25% over 1.5

Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery+0.3 TGT when he sits

Without (6g)

1.7 TGT

50% over 1.5

With (3g)

1.3 TGT

33% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ MIN

Jan 4, 2026

32ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

MIN allows 1.9 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 34 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Emanuel Wilson has gone over 1.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most TGT of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.