Seattle Seahawks

Emanuel Wilson Targets

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emanuel Wilson has gone over 1.5 TGT in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Fort Valley State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.8 TGT · our line

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OutEmanuel Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After logging double-digit carries in six of the Seahawks' previous seven games while scoring four touchdowns and averaging 66.4 scrimmage yards during that span, Wilson fell out of the game plan entirely in Week 8. With Zach Charbonnet (knee) getting cleared to make his 2026 debut, Jadarian Price (chest) returning from injured reserve and George Holani still on hand as an option on passing downs, the Seahawks had no reps available out of the backfield for Wilson. Unless Charbonnet or Price succumbs to another injury, Wilson's playing time on offense will likely remain scarce moving forward.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

1.6 TGT(×0.94 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 1.8 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	5/5
1.5Current	40%	2/5
	20%	1/5
	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Nov 8, 2026

32ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

ARI allows 1.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Emanuel Wilson has gone over 1.5 TGT 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. ARI has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most TGT of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.