Seattle Seahawks

Emanuel Wilson Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emanuel Wilson has gone over 0.5 REC YDS in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Fort Valley State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 13.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks line

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OutEmanuel Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After logging double-digit carries in six of the Seahawks' previous seven games while scoring four touchdowns and averaging 66.4 scrimmage yards during that span, Wilson fell out of the game plan entirely in Week 8. With Zach Charbonnet (knee) getting cleared to make his 2026 debut, Jadarian Price (chest) returning from injured reserve and George Holani still on hand as an option on passing downs, the Seahawks had no reps available out of the backfield for Wilson. Unless Charbonnet or Price succumbs to another injury, Wilson's playing time on offense will likely remain scarce moving forward.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line85supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

12.6 REC YDS(×1.00 context)

L5 13.0 · L10 13.0 · med 11.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 19.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	60%	3/5
	60%	3/5
	60%	3/5
	60%	3/5

Last 5 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%3/3Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days75%3/4Low

Next matchup — vs ARI

Nov 8, 2026

23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

ARI allows 13.3 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Emanuel Wilson has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. ARI has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (13.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

6 books @ 6.5 REC YDS

No-vig fair (over): 49.3%
No-vig fair (under): 50.7%

Best Over

FanDuel-102

-2.4% EV

Best Under

BetMGM-110

-3.2% EV

Model vs market (over)+25.8%

Our model puts the over at 75.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (6.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.