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New York JetsGeno Smith
#7 · QB · 6' 2" · 221 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 213.8 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith navigated the Jets to a 17-7 lead with 11:04 remaining in the fourth quarter, but New York's offense stalled down the stretch, with a turnover on downs sandwiched around two punts on the team's final three possessions. Making his first home start for the Jets in nearly a decade, Smith threw his first touchdown pass of the season on a five-yard connection with Garrett Wilson in the third quarter. Smith hasn't turned the ball over but has just 462 passing yards heading into a Week 3 road game against the Lions, who allowed three touchdown passes apiece to Tyler Shough and Josh Allen.
Verdict
vs 221.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency48neutral
Projection
176.8 PASS YDS(×0.84 context)
L5 191.0 · L10 207.0 · med 208.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 165.0 · ceil 284.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 221.5Current | 44% | 7/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 221.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
DET allows 329.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Geno Smith has gone over 221.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 44% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 2nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (329.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 66.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.