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New York JetsGeno Smith
#7 · QB · 6' 2" · 221 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 256.3 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith threw second-quarter touchdown passes of 18 yards to Isaiah Williams and 12 yards to Adonai Mitchell while coming 10 yards shy of his second 300-yard passing performance of the season. The veteran QB had a chance to orchestrate a game-winning drive against his former team, but the Jets' comeback bid came up short when Smith threw an end-zone interception from the Raiders' 35-yard line with seven seconds remaining. Smith has been picked off in each of his last three outings after going without an interception through five starts to open his second tenure with the Jets. He'll take a 12:3 TD:INT into a Week 9 trip to Kansas City.
Verdict
vs 212.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency71supports it
Projection
240.2 PASS YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 266.4 · L10 256.3 · med 252.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 221.4 · ceil 289.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Last 207 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Season7 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Situational splits
Over 212.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days83%5/6Low
Next matchup — @ KC
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
KC allows 228.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Geno Smith has gone over 212.5 PASS YDS 6 of 7 decided times (86%) — versus 86% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 17th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (228.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 44.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 211.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+23.0%
Our model puts the over at 73.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (213.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 86%.