New York Jets

Geno Smith Passing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Geno Smith has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: West Virginia
Experience: 15 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.6 PASS TD · our line

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OutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith struggled in the absence of top wide receiver Garrett Wilson (concussion), as the Jets made four field goals in the first half before getting blanked in the second half. The veteran QB posted his second-lowest total of the season for passing yards and was held without a touchdown for the first time since Week 1. Smith could be busy in Week 10 with the 2-7 Jets likely to be forced into a pass-heavy game plan if they fall behind against the Bills.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.6 PASS TD(×0.92 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Last 207 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Season7 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
1.5Current	43%	3/7
	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Next matchup — vs BUF

Nov 15, 2026

5thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

BUF allows 2.1 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Geno Smith has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (2.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.