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New York JetsGeno Smith Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Geno Smith has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 8.3 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith navigated the Jets to a 17-7 lead with 11:04 remaining in the fourth quarter, but New York's offense stalled down the stretch, with a turnover on downs sandwiched around two punts on the team's final three possessions. Making his first home start for the Jets in nearly a decade, Smith threw his first touchdown pass of the season on a five-yard connection with Garrett Wilson in the third quarter. Smith hasn't turned the ball over but has just 462 passing yards heading into a Week 3 road game against the Lions, who allowed three touchdown passes apiece to Tyler Shough and Josh Allen.
Verdict
vs 11.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.6 RUSH YDS(×0.84 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 6.1 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 14.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2016 games
25%over
4 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%Season16 games
25%over
4 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 11.5Current | 25% | 4/16 | |
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away0%0/7Medium
Days since last game
3+ days27%4/15Medium
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
DET allows 38.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Geno Smith has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 25% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 2nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (38.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.
More Geno Smith research
Geno Smith — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Smith Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Smith Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Smith Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.