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New York JetsGeno Smith Completions
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Geno Smith has gone over 19.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 20.9 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith will likely dominate first-team reps leading up to the regular season, but the Jets will use training camp and preseason play to evaluate their backup options. Of the team's other quarterbacks, Klubnik probably has the best chance of seeing the field eventually in 2026, as the Jets could be motivated to evaluate their 2026 fourth-round pick in meaningful game situations if the team falls out of playoff contention again on the heels of a 3-14 season in 2025.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency57neutral
Projection
17.8 CMP(×0.90 context)
L5 19.4 · L10 21.1 · med 19.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.0 · ceil 25.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 19.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Adonai Mitchell out+0.2 CMP when he sits
Without (4g)
21.0 CMP
50% over 19.5
With (10g)
20.8 CMP
50% over 19.5
Isaiah Davis out+0.3 CMP when he sits
Without (7g)
21.0 CMP
43% over 19.5
With (7g)
20.7 CMP
57% over 19.5
Last matchup — vs NYG
Dec 28, 2025
20thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
NYG allows 19.2 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Geno Smith has gone over 19.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most CMP of 32 teams (19.2 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Geno Smith research
Geno Smith — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Smith Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Smith Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Smith Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.