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New York JetsGeno Smith Completions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Geno Smith has gone over 20.5 CMP in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 21.1 CMP · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Completions (CMP)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith navigated the Jets to a 17-7 lead with 11:04 remaining in the fourth quarter, but New York's offense stalled down the stretch, with a turnover on downs sandwiched around two punts on the team's final three possessions. Making his first home start for the Jets in nearly a decade, Smith threw his first touchdown pass of the season on a five-yard connection with Garrett Wilson in the third quarter. Smith hasn't turned the ball over but has just 462 passing yards heading into a Week 3 road game against the Lions, who allowed three touchdown passes apiece to Tyler Shough and Josh Allen.
Verdict
vs 20.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency58neutral
Projection
17.8 CMP(×0.84 context)
L5 19.0 · L10 21.5 · med 19.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.0 · ceil 27.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Season16 games
44%over
7 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%Situational splits
Over 20.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
DET allows 27.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Geno Smith has gone over 20.5 CMP 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 44% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most CMP of 32 teams (27.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Completions (CMP)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (20.5 CMP). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Geno Smith research
Geno Smith — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Smith Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Smith Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Smith Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.