Loading…
Dallas CowboysGeorge Pickens
#3 · WR · 6' 3" · 200 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 68.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm George Pickens's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified
Pickens' practice reps were capped all week due to a lingering hamstring injury. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer told Yarrish on Friday that he's "hopeful" Pickens will be able to suit up this weekend, and Dallas will confirm as much about 90 minutes before Sunday's 1:00 p.m. Et kickoff.
Verdict
vs 65.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency19argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
76.2 REC YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 76.4 · L10 68.3 · med 65.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 40.0 · ceil 82.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 65.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 65.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
27thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
IND allows 37.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, George Pickens has gone over 65.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 64.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.5%
Best Over
BetMGM-110
-5.5% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-4.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+11.3%
Our model puts the over at 60.8% vs the market's no-vig 49.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (62.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.