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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert
#10 · QB · 6' 6" · 236 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 199.7 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJustin Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Chargers declined to move on from offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel during the Week 7 bye, and Herbert did finish with a season-high passing yardage total on a season-best 75.0 percent completion rate. However, Herbert failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second straight game while tossing multiple interceptions for the third time this season. Herbert still has just a 61.8 percent completion rate -- a career low by a fairly wide margin -- and a 5:10 TD:INT through seven games as the winless Bolts try again for their first victory in a Week 9 home matchup against the Texans next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 208.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency68supports it
Projection
195.6 PASS YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 199.4 · L10 199.7 · med 204.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 189.6 · ceil 222.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Situational splits
Over 208.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%2/6Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Nov 8, 2026
5thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 262.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 208.5 PASS YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (262.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 38.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 207.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-13.8%
Our model puts the over at 36.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (206.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.