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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert Completions
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Justin Herbert has gone over 20 CMP in 2 of his last 9 decided games (22%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 20.9 CMP · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Completions (CMP)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
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Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJustin Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Herbert's final line was about as unremarkable as his performance in the shocking season-opening loss, one where the 2020 first-round pick was sacked three times in addition to his one interception. He had a particularly difficult second half outside of his eight-yard touchdown pass to Ladd McConkey (chest), as Los Angeles' six other possessions after halftime ended in either a punt, a blocked punt or the aforementioned interception, which came at the Cardinals' 5-yard line. The loss of McConkey to his injury in the third quarter certainly didn't help Herbert's cause, and he and his healthy teammates will look to atone for an alarming upset defeat when they face off with the division rival Raiders in next Sunday's home matchup.
Verdict
vs 20 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency51neutral
Projection
19.6 CMP(×1.01 context)
L5 19.8 · L10 17.5 · med 19.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.4 · ceil 24.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
22%over
2 over · 7 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%Last 2018 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under · 1 push
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season18 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under · 1 push
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Situational splits
Over 20 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 20, 2026
27thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
LV allows 15.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 20 CMP 2 of 9 decided times (22%) — versus 47% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most CMP of 32 teams (15.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Completions (CMP)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (20.25 CMP). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Justin Herbert research
Justin Herbert — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Herbert Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Herbert Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Herbert Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.