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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Justin Herbert has gone over 16.5 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.1 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJustin Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Herbert said for each of the next few weeks he expects to dedicate one day to footwork and throwing-motion drills, with the goal of speeding up his release. Under McDaniel's new offensive scheme, Herbert said an early emphasis has been "just getting the ball out as quick as possible" rather than relying on his arm strength, in order to allow his pass-catchers "maximum ability to turn upfield and have time before a defender gets to them" and accumulate yards after the catch. That shift will play to the strengths of the Chargers' athletic skill-position group, led by playmakers like RB Omarion Hampton, WRs Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, and TEs Oronde Gadsden and David Njoku, and help reduce some of the attrition Herbert faced as the most pressured quarterback in the NFL last season. Offensive tackles Rashawn Slater (kneecap) and Joe Alt (ankle) are both expected to be cleared for training camp as well, so there are multiple reasons to be optimistic that Los Angeles' offense will take a productive step forward in 2026, with Herbert being a focal beneficiary of McDaniel's creative playcalling.
Verdict
vs 16.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
15.2 FS(×0.92 context)
L5 16.2 · L10 16.9 · med 14.3
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.6 · ceil 27.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 16.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 29% | 5/17 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%6/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out+2.4 FS when he sits
Without (7g)
19.5 FS
57% over 16.5
With (10g)
17.1 FS
30% over 16.5
Quentin Johnston out+0.8 FS when he sits
Without (3g)
18.8 FS
67% over 16.5
With (14g)
18.0 FS
36% over 16.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
30thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 13.3 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 16.5 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 41% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most FS of 32 teams (13.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.
More Justin Herbert research
Justin Herbert — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Herbert Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Herbert Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Herbert Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.