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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Justin Herbert has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 32.6 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJustin Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Herbert said for each of the next few weeks he expects to dedicate one day to footwork and throwing-motion drills, with the goal of speeding up his release. Under McDaniel's new offensive scheme, Herbert said an early emphasis has been "just getting the ball out as quick as possible" rather than relying on his arm strength, in order to allow his pass-catchers "maximum ability to turn upfield and have time before a defender gets to them" and accumulate yards after the catch. That shift will play to the strengths of the Chargers' athletic skill-position group, led by playmakers like RB Omarion Hampton, WRs Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, and TEs Oronde Gadsden and David Njoku, and help reduce some of the attrition Herbert faced as the most pressured quarterback in the NFL last season. Offensive tackles Rashawn Slater (kneecap) and Joe Alt (ankle) are both expected to be cleared for training camp as well, so there are multiple reasons to be optimistic that Los Angeles' offense will take a productive step forward in 2026, with Herbert being a focal beneficiary of McDaniel's creative playcalling.
Verdict
vs 22.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)93supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
34.2 RUSH YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 40.4 · L10 36.9 · med 39.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.2 · ceil 57.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
65%over
11 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–83%Season17 games
65%over
11 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–83%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 22.5Current | 65% | 11/17 | |
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away63%5/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%10/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out-6.9 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
28.6 RUSH YDS
43% over 22.5
With (10g)
35.5 RUSH YDS
80% over 22.5
Quentin Johnston out-13.7 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
21.3 RUSH YDS
33% over 22.5
With (14g)
35.1 RUSH YDS
71% over 22.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
19thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 16.9 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 65% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 19th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (16.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.
More Justin Herbert research
Justin Herbert — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Herbert Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Herbert Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Herbert Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.