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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Justin Herbert has gone over 21.5 RUSH YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 30.8 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJustin Herbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Herbert's stat line tells the tale of an ugly and alarming Week 2 loss for the Chargers in which Herbert was constantly harassed and took three sacks in addition to tossing his pair of picks. The embattled signal-caller did connect with nine different targets overall, but no Bolts pass catcher had more than three receptions or 53 receiving yards. Herbert has completed just 59.3 percent of his passes over the first two games, and he'll have plenty of pressure on his shoulders for a suddenly critical Week 3 road matchup against the Bills next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 21.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.3 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 33.4 · L10 28.1 · med 25.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 7.2 · ceil 57.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
63%over
12 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–81%Season19 games
63%over
12 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 14/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 21.5Current | 63% | 12/19 | |
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away63%5/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days61%11/18Medium
Next matchup — @ BUF
Sep 27, 2026
21stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BUF allows 11.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 21.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 63% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (11.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 19.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-109
-4.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.5%
Our model puts the over at 57.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (19.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Justin Herbert research
Justin Herbert — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Herbert Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Herbert Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Herbert Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.