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Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert
#10 · QB · 6' 6" · 236 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 198.9 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Justin Herbert's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Finger Not Specified
Coach Jim Harbaugh said after the latest loss that Herbert "could" have a fracture. The quarterback was pulled from the game with the score out of hand in the fourth quarter, but Herbert apparently lobbied to stay in the contest. He'll have an extra day to heal up ahead of next Monday night's date with the Ravens. Herbert has been well off the fantasy radar for much of the season in this broken Los Angeles offense. If he can't face Baltimore, DJ Uiagalelei would likely get the nod under center. He completed two of seven passes for 24 yards and a touchdown in relief of Herbert on Sunday.
Verdict
vs 199.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency70supports it
Projection
201.3 PASS YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 192.8 · L10 198.9 · med 198.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 190.2 · ceil 219.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 199.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 199.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ BAL
Nov 17, 2026
12thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BAL allows 238.1 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Justin Herbert has gone over 199.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 12th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (238.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 36.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 204.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-3.1% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
-3.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+1.1%
Our model puts the over at 51.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (204.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.