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Atlanta FalconsKyle Pitts Sr.
#8 · TE · 6' 6" · 250 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 59.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKyle Pitts Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Pitts was able to make his mark in the catch column for the first time in the new season, but that one reception turned out to be his only contribution on the afternoon. However, given Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combined to throw for only 145 yards and three interceptions, Pitts' sparse production is largely explained away. The talented tight end figures to see his outlook brighten whenever Michael Penix (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) are able to suit up, with a Week 3 Thursday night road matchup against the Packers their next opportunity to do so.
Verdict
vs 58.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
77.1 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 90.6 · L10 67.5 · med 58.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.8 · ceil 72.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 58.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 |
Situational splits
Over 58.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
21stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
GB allows 20.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kyle Pitts Sr. has gone over 58.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 21st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (20.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 34.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.