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New York GiantsMalik Nabers
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 200 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Sep 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 83.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Malik Nabers's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Knee - ACL Surgery
Nabers hasn't been cleared to fully practice with his teammates, but the 2024 first-round pick has been taking part in individual drills at training camp. The star wideout told reporters Thursday that he feels good but doesn't have any "target dates" regarding his return, per Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. The Giants will kick off their regular season Sept. 13 on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys.
Verdict
vs 70.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsWarm overFireFactor 23/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
80.8 REC YDS
L5 83.7 · L10 83.7 · med 71.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 36.2 · ceil 128.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 70.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 70.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — vs KC
Sep 22, 2025
30thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 37.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Malik Nabers has gone over 70.5 REC YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 63.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.