New York Giants

Malik Nabers Targets

Stats updated: Sep 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Malik Nabers has gone over 11.5 TGT in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 10.7 TGT · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Malik Nabers's status before the game.

Injury:: Right Knee - ACL Surgery

Nabers hasn't been cleared to fully practice with his teammates, but the 2024 first-round pick has been taking part in individual drills at training camp. The star wideout told reporters Thursday that he feels good but doesn't have any "target dates" regarding his return, per Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. The Giants will kick off their regular season Sept. 13 on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys.

Verdict

vs 11.5 TGTTargets

Warm overFireFactor 34/100· model 41% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency59neutral

Projection

10.4 TGT

L5 10.7 · L10 10.7 · med 12.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 9.0 · ceil 12.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 103 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Last 203 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Season3 games

67%over

2 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
	67%	2/3
11.5Current	67%	2/3
	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — TGT per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%2/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Last matchup — vs KC

Sep 22, 2025

20thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Malik Nabers has gone over 11.5 TGT 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.