Loading…
New York GiantsMalik Nabers Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Malik Nabers has gone over 5.5 REC in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Malik Nabers's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Shoulder Not Specified
Nabers was in significant pain after being injured on the final play of the first quarter, and per the Giants' official X account his return is officially in question.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
5.4 REC
L5 5.5 · L10 5.5 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.8 · ceil 7.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — @ LAR
Sep 22, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Malik Nabers has gone over 5.5 REC 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 48.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 51.5%
Best Over
FanDuel-102
-3.9% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-120
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.2%
Our model puts the over at 46.4% vs the market's no-vig 48.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Malik Nabers research
Malik Nabers — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Nabers Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Nabers Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Nabers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.