New York Giants

Malik Nabers Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Malik Nabers has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.7 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Malik Nabers's status before the game.

Injury:: Right Knee - ACL Surgery

Nabers hasn't been cleared to fully practice with his teammates, but the 2024 first-round pick has been taking part in individual drills at training camp. The star wideout told reporters Thursday that he feels good but doesn't have any "target dates" regarding his return, per Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. The Giants will kick off their regular season Sept. 13 on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

Cool underFireFactor 24/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD

L5 0.7 · L10 0.7 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Last matchup — vs KC

Sep 22, 2025

30thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 3 games, Malik Nabers has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.