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Las Vegas RaidersMichael Mayer
#87 · TE · 6' 4" · 256 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mayer served as the No. 1 tight end for the second straight game to open the season due to Brock Bowers' (knee) absence. Mayer played a complementary and mostly short-area role as expected, but through his two starts, he's posted a serviceable a 9-55-0 line on 11 targets. Bowers reportedly could be healthy enough to play in a Week 3 road matchup against the Saints, a development that would relegate Mayer to his usual No. 2 role.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
33.9 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 40.2 · L10 35.0 · med 29.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 20.2 · ceil 47.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Season10 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%3/9Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NO allows 25.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 30% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 10th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (25.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 43.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-18.8%
Our model puts the over at 31.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (43.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.