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Las Vegas RaidersMichael Mayer
#87 · TE · 6' 4" · 256 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 36.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While McFadden describes the tight end's issue as a "busted nose," coach Klint Kubiak noted after Monday's practice that Mayer should be fine. That said, it's possible the 2023 second-rounder's practice participation will be impacted some by the issue in the short term. When healthy, Mayer is set to work behind star tight end Brock Bowers, but with the Raiders' WR corps a work in progress, the team's offense could feature frequent two-TE formations, a context that may result in a degree of fantasy utility for Mayer in deeper formats.
Verdict
vs 32.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
38.5 REC YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 36.2 · L10 36.9 · med 32.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.6 · ceil 48.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 32.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 32.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Last matchup — vs KC
Jan 4, 2026
25thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
KC allows 24.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 32 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 32.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 25th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (24.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.