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Las Vegas RaidersMichael Mayer Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Michael Mayer has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 5 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.8 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mayer's six targets were second on the team behind Brock Bowers' 10, and only Bowers (26) ran more routes than Mayer's 20 on Kirk Cousins' 27 dropbacks. The tight end has just one touchdown this season but has remained an integral part of Las Vegas' passing attack. He's already surpassed his 2025 catches and yards totals, posting 36 grabs for 351 yards through eight games this season. Mayer will be a fantasy TE2 for next Sunday's date with the 49ers.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency51neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
5.0 REC(×0.86 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 5.8 · med 6.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.6 · ceil 7.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 105 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 205 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Season5 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — @ SF
Nov 8, 2026
26thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
SF allows 2.2 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 5 decided times (80%) — versus 80% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most REC of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 47.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.9%
Best Over
Caesars+102
-4.9% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
+3.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+26.2%
Our model puts the over at 73.2% vs the market's no-vig 47.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 80%.
More Michael Mayer research
Michael Mayer — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mayer Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Mayer Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Mayer Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.