Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Mayer Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Michael Mayer has gone over 3.5 REC in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.9 REC · our line

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OutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

While McFadden describes the tight end's issue as a "busted nose," coach Klint Kubiak noted after Monday's practice that Mayer should be fine. That said, it's possible the 2023 second-rounder's practice participation will be impacted some by the issue in the short term. When healthy, Mayer is set to work behind star tight end Brock Bowers, but with the Raiders' WR corps a work in progress, the team's offense could feature frequent two-TE formations, a context that may result in a degree of fantasy utility for Mayer in deeper formats.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency5argues against it

Projection

3.8 REC(×0.95 context)

L5 3.8 · L10 3.9 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 4.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	88%	7/8
	88%	7/8
3.5Current	38%	3/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%2/7Low

Last matchup — vs KC

Jan 4, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

KC allows 2.4 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 3.5 REC 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC of 32 teams (2.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.