Las Vegas Raiders

Michael Mayer Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Michael Mayer has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mayer served as the No. 1 tight end for the second straight game to open the season due to Brock Bowers' (knee) absence. Mayer played a complementary and mostly short-area role as expected, but through his two starts, he's posted a serviceable a 9-55-0 line on 11 targets. Bowers reportedly could be healthy enough to play in a Week 3 road matchup against the Saints, a development that would relegate Mayer to his usual No. 2 role.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 94% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line94supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×0.97 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Season10 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days11%1/9Medium

Next matchup — @ NO

Sep 27, 2026

18thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

NO allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 10% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 18th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 10%.