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Las Vegas RaidersMichael Mayer Targets
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Michael Mayer has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 5.7 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Filling the No. 1 tight end role with Brock Bowers (knee) sidelined, Mayer set the pace for the Raiders in targets while also tying for the team lead in receptions. Mayer gained 14 of his yards on one catch, so he was mired in an extreme short-area role for the majority of the afternoon. Nevertheless, he's proven capable of offering useful production as Bowers' fill-in on multiple occasions, although Mayer could revert to his usual reserve role in light of reports that Bowers could be ready for his season debut as early as next Sunday's Week 2 road matchup against the Chargers.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
5.6 TGT(×0.94 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 5.7 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 5.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — @ LAC
Sep 20, 2026
1stof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
LAC allows 13.0 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 1st-most TGT of 32 teams (13.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Michael Mayer research
Michael Mayer — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mayer Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Mayer Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Mayer Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.