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Cincinnati BengalsMike Gesicki
#88 · TE · 6' 6" · 245 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 38.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gesicki was able to reach the end zone for the fifth straight game, connecting with Joe Burrow for a 25-yard score in the fourth quarter. The tight end's four catches and 76 receiving yards were both his highest totals since Week 1 versus Tampa Bay. Gesicki has now caught 17 of 24 targets for 241 yards and six scores over seven contests to open the regular season.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line31argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
58.5 REC YDS(×1.21 context)
L5 53.2 · L10 42.7 · med 36.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 15.6 · ceil 68.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Season12 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 35.5Current | 42% | 5/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
10thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
ATL allows 29.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 10th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (29.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 28.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-108
-3.7% EV
Model vs market (over)+18.8%
Our model puts the over at 68.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (28.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.