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Cincinnati BengalsMike Gesicki Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mike Gesicki has gone over 2.5 REC in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
One week after leading the team in receiving with a 5-78-1 line on seven targets against the Bucs, Gesicki laid an egg against Houston. He played just 21 of 60 offensive snaps, fewer than both Drew Sample (36) and Erick All (25) at tight end for the Bengals. Despite playing fewer snaps than both, Gesicki led the trip with 20 pass routes, seven more than Sample and 15 more than All. Gesicki is essentially a fourth receiver behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas. He'd need an injury to Chase or Higgins to have a reliable fantasy role.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency9argues against it
Projection
4.0 REC(×1.12 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.6 · ceil 4.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 2.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
30thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
PIT allows 1.3 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 2.5 REC 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most REC of 32 teams (1.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Mike Gesicki research
Mike Gesicki — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gesicki Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Gesicki Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Gesicki Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.