Loading…
Cincinnati BengalsMike Gesicki Targets
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mike Gesicki has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.7 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Even with the lethal one-two punch of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, it was Gesicki who led the Bengals in catches, targets and receiving yards during Sunday's win, which included a two-yard touchdown pass from Joe Burrow late in the first quarter. Gesicki was also Burrow's go-to target late in the second quarter, with the duo connecting on passes of 16, 11 and 20 yards to help set up a 20-yard field goal from Evan McPherson. Chase, Higgins and running back Chase Brown are still the main playmakers on offense for the Bengals, but Gesicki is more than capable of having games like Sunday. The Bengals will look to start the 2026 season with a 2-0 record next Sunday on the road against the Texans, whose defense gave up 36 points to the Bills and allowed tight end Dalton Kincaid to turn six targets into five catches for 130 yards in Week 1.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency52neutral
Projection
5.9 TGT(×1.15 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 4.7 · med 4.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.6 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 4.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
PIT allows 1.0 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 32nd-most TGT of 32 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Mike Gesicki research
Mike Gesicki — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gesicki Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Gesicki Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Gesicki Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.