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Cincinnati BengalsMike Gesicki Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mike Gesicki has gone over 9.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.9 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Gesicki isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gesicki was able to reach the end zone for the fifth straight game, connecting with Joe Burrow for a 25-yard score in the fourth quarter. The tight end's four catches and 76 receiving yards were both his highest totals since Week 1 versus Tampa Bay. Gesicki has now caught 17 of 24 targets for 241 yards and six scores over seven contests to open the regular season.
Verdict
vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
15.4 FS(×1.21 context)
L5 14.9 · L10 11.2 · med 12.6
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.6 · ceil 16.7
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
10thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends
ATL allows 7.4 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mike Gesicki has gone over 9.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 10th-most FS of 32 teams (7.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Mike Gesicki research
Mike Gesicki — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gesicki Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Gesicki Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Gesicki Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.