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Pittsburgh SteelersPat Freiermuth
#88 · TE · 6' 5" · 258 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 33.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Pat Freiermuth's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Calf
The late addition of a calf issue puts Freiermuth's availability in doubt ahead of Week 6. He's coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Colts in Week 5, but if he's sidelined for Sunday, then Darnell Washington would step into a larger role offensively, with Robert Tonyan also in the mix for more snaps.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 19/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency48neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
31.8 REC YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 33.8 · L10 33.8 · med 32.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 27.4 · ceil 44.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — @ TB
Oct 18, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TB allows 25.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Pat Freiermuth has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (25.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 10.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 35.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-110
-4.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-109
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-14.5%
Our model puts the over at 35.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (35.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.