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Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes
#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 256.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPatrick Mahomes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The two-time MVP threw a TD in each of the first three quarters, including a four-yard toss to Noah Gray in the third that gave Kansas City a 24-13 lead, but Mahomes got shut out of the end zone over the final 15 minutes as Denver staged a comeback. It was the second three-touchdown performance of the season for Mahomes as well as his second 300-yard effort, after he threw for 382 yards and three scores against the Colts in Week 2. He'll look to keep rolling in Week 9 against a Jets defense that's allowed three straight quarterbacks to produce at least three TDs against it.
Verdict
vs 245.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency54neutral
Projection
265.3 PASS YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 245.8 · L10 256.4 · med 246.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 192.2 · ceil 311.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 245.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 245.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Nov 8, 2026
24thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 208.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 245.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 24th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (208.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 70.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 244.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+11.1%
Our model puts the over at 61.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (245.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.