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Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes Passing TDs
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 5 of his last 7 decided games (71%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 1.7 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPatrick Mahomes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The two-time MVP threw a TD in each of the first three quarters, including a four-yard toss to Noah Gray in the third that gave Kansas City a 24-13 lead, but Mahomes got shut out of the end zone over the final 15 minutes as Denver staged a comeback. It was the second three-touchdown performance of the season for Mahomes as well as his second 300-yard effort, after he threw for 382 yards and three scores against the Colts in Week 2. He'll look to keep rolling in Week 9 against a Jets defense that's allowed three straight quarterbacks to produce at least three TDs against it.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.7 PASS TD(×1.03 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.7 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 2.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
71%over
5 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%Last 207 games
71%over
5 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%Season7 games
71%over
5 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 1.5Current | 71% | 5/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Nov 8, 2026
8thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 1.8 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 5 of 7 decided times (71%) — versus 71% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 8th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 2.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 39.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 61.0%
Best Over
Caesars+150
-2.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-175
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+18.7%
Our model puts the over at 57.7% vs the market's no-vig 39.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.
More Patrick Mahomes research
Patrick Mahomes — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mahomes Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.