Loading…
Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 13.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 11.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPatrick Mahomes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The two-time MVP threw a TD in each of the first three quarters, including a four-yard toss to Noah Gray in the third that gave Kansas City a 24-13 lead, but Mahomes got shut out of the end zone over the final 15 minutes as Denver staged a comeback. It was the second three-touchdown performance of the season for Mahomes as well as his second 300-yard effort, after he threw for 382 yards and three scores against the Colts in Week 2. He'll look to keep rolling in Week 9 against a Jets defense that's allowed three straight quarterbacks to produce at least three TDs against it.
Verdict
vs 13.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
10.5 RUSH YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 7.4 · L10 11.0 · med 14.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 16.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 13.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 16.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 13.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 12th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (16.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 11.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
BetRivers-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.0%
Our model puts the over at 43.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (11.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Patrick Mahomes research
Patrick Mahomes — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mahomes Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.