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Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes Completions
Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 23.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Completions · season avg 22.5 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Patrick Mahomes's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Knee - ACL Surgery
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid shared that Mahomes had been "cleared to participate fully" to begin training camp, and seeing the 30-year-old signal-caller now taking part in team drills affirms his tremendous recovery progress. That said, it still remains to be seen whether Mahomes has been cleared for game action, be that in the preseason or Week 1 against the Broncos on Monday, Sept. 14. Mahomes has stated that his aim is to be ready for the start of the regular season.
Verdict
vs 23.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency62supports it
Projection
21.6 CMP(×1.04 context)
L5 22.2 · L10 22.8 · med 24.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.0 · ceil 27.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 21% | 3/14 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kenneth Walker III out
Without (10g)
22.5 CMP
50% over 23.5
With (4g)
22.5 CMP
50% over 23.5
Last matchup — vs LAC
Dec 14, 2025
30thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
LAC allows 17.4 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 23.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most CMP of 32 teams (17.4 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Patrick Mahomes research
Patrick Mahomes — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mahomes Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.