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Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes Completions
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 22.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas Tech
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 22.0 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPatrick Mahomes isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Making good on his long-standing pledge to be available for Monday night's game following last December's season-ending knee injury, Mahomes endured a cold start from a statistical standpoint while completing only two of his first 10 passes. However, the two-time regular-season MVP capped off Kansas City's first drive of the season with a 15-yard touchdown run that allayed any fears about his health, and which he punctuated with a dive into the end zone. Mahomes also picked up the pace through the air after his ragged start, and he ended up connecting with Rashee Rice (13 yards) and Kenneth Walker (two yards) for his pair of scoring tosses. The one major blemish on the veteran signal-caller's night came when he air-mailed a pass into the middle of the field early in the second half that was picked off by Brandon Jones at the Chiefs' 29-yard line and set up a Denver field goal. Now with a solid victory over a talented division rival under his belt, Mahomes and the Chiefs head into a Week 2 home matchup against the Colts on Sunday night with plenty of momentum.
Verdict
vs 22.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 36% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line36argues against it
Consistency60neutral
Projection
18.8 CMP(×0.95 context)
L5 19.4 · L10 21.4 · med 22.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 15.8 · ceil 26.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 22.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 | ||
| 27% | 4/15 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — vs IND
Sep 21, 2026
22ndof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 17.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 22.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most CMP of 32 teams (17.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Patrick Mahomes research
Patrick Mahomes — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mahomes Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Mahomes Rushing Yards→
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Mahomes Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.