Cleveland Browns

Quinshon Judkins Carries

Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Quinshon Judkins has gone over 16.5 CAR in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 16.4 CAR · our line

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OutQuinshon Judkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"I'm gonna push him to find out," Staley added of Judkins, who is participating in training camp after recovering from a dislocated right ankle and fractured fibula suffered in Week 16 of the 2025 season. Prior to the injury, Judkins enjoyed a productive rookie campaign, totaling 998 scrimmage yards and seven rushing touchdowns in 14 regular-season appearances. Judkins is expected to work as Cleveland's lead back, with fellow second-year pro Dylan Sampson serving in a change-of-pace role.

Verdict

vs 16.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency44neutral

Projection

13.6 CAR(×0.93 context)

L5 14.6 · L10 15.8 · med 15.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 11.2 · ceil 22.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2014 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Season14 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	64%	9/14
	57%	8/14
	57%	8/14
16.5Current	50%	7/14
	43%	6/14
	36%	5/14
	36%	5/14

Last 14 games — CAR per game vs. line 16.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 16.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home71%5/7Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days54%7/13Low

With a teammate out

How this CAR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Shedeur Sanders out+2.5 CAR when he sits

Without (8g)

17.5 CAR

63% over 16.5

With (6g)

15.0 CAR

33% over 16.5

Dillon Gabriel out-4.4 CAR when he sits

Without (5g)

13.6 CAR

20% over 16.5

With (9g)

18.0 CAR

67% over 16.5

Last matchup — vs BUF

Dec 21, 2025

27thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

BUF allows 10.1 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Quinshon Judkins has gone over 16.5 CAR 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most CAR of 32 teams (10.1 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.