Cleveland Browns

Quinshon Judkins Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Quinshon Judkins has gone over 2.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.1 REC · our line

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OutQuinshon Judkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Judkins once again handled a clear No. 1 role in Cleveland's ground attack, but he unsurprisingly found running room at a premium against the Buccaneers' stout defensive front. The second-year back was able to make up for the lack of rushing production to an extent with his work as a receiver, which saw him tie for the second-most receptions on the afternoon for the Browns. Judkins is averaging a meager 2.3 yards per carry through the first two games, but he has a useful 7-44-0 receiving line on seven targets in that same span as a Week 3 home matchup against the Panthers approaches next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.3 REC(×0.83 context)

L5 3.2 · L10 2.4 · med 2.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	12/16
	56%	9/16
2.5Current	44%	7/16
	19%	3/16
	13%	2/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home29%2/7Low

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%6/15Medium

Next matchup — vs CAR

Sep 27, 2026

18thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

CAR allows 2.0 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Quinshon Judkins has gone over 2.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most REC of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 2.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 39.5%
No-vig fair (under): 60.5%

Best Over

Sleeper+124

-11.6% EV

Best Under

Sleeper-217

-11.6% EV

Model vs market (over)-4.0%

Our model puts the over at 35.5% vs the market's no-vig 39.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.