Cleveland Browns

Quinshon Judkins Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Quinshon Judkins has gone over 2.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.5 TGT · our line

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OutQuinshon Judkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Judkins operated as the unquestioned lead back for the Browns as expected, yet his opportunities on the ground were limited overall thanks to a game script that saw Cleveland already down 24-0 at the half. Judkins unsurprisingly found running room difficult to come by when he did carry the ball, but he was efficient with his pair of receptions. Judkins could face loaded defensive fronts most weeks if the Browns' quarterback play doesn't improve, and a Week 2 road matchup against the Buccaneers next Sunday doesn't offer much promise on paper.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency1argues against it

Projection

2.5 TGT(×0.85 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 2.6 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.8 · ceil 3.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2015 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Season15 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	87%	13/15
	80%	12/15
2.5Current	53%	8/15
	20%	3/15
	7%	1/15
	7%	1/15

Last 15 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away63%5/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%7/14Low

Next matchup — @ TB

Sep 20, 2026

6thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

TB allows 4.5 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Quinshon Judkins has gone over 2.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.