Loading…
Seattle SeahawksSam Darnold
#14 · QB · 6' 3" · 225 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 244.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam Darnold isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Lower Body Soreness
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Macdonald added that "the timetable has shifted quite drastically" for Darnold's recovery. It sounds like Darnold has a chance to return as soon as next Sunday, though the Seahawks have little reason to rush his return with backup QB Drew Lock having led the team to a 2-0 record. Darnold's first step toward a return would be a return to practice, and his first chance to do so will come Wednesday.
Verdict
vs 246.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency55neutral
Projection
215.9 PASS YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 203.4 · L10 217.9 · med 223.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 199.6 · ceil 295.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 246.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 |
Situational splits
Over 246.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
20thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 203.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sam Darnold has gone over 246.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (203.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 65.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 228.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-12.9%
Our model puts the over at 37.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (228.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.